A couple months ago, I looked at a number of Electoral College projection maps and every one of them had Obama winning with a substantial margin. Four debates later (3 presidential, 1 vice presidential) and the maps have dramatically changed.
Today, the race is so tight that the book makers in Las Vegas are probably going nuts trying to figure out the odds of who will win. Some maps show Obama still ahead, but by the slimmest of margins, and others are showing Romney ahead, also by the slimmest of margins.
But one thing is very clear. Obama’s 20-50 electoral vote lead has all but evaporated in a number of projection sites. The debates have had a huge impact on the voters, resulting in a Romney surge that has got to be making the Obama campaign people begin to squirm.
Keep in mind that it takes 270 electoral votes to win the White House. Winning the popular vote does not automatically mean you win the election, just ask Al Gore. He won the popular vote in 2000, but George Bush won the Electoral College vote.
Rasmussen Report has Obama with 237 electoral votes, Romney with 235 and 66 toss-ups.
ElectionProjection.com has Obama with the lead at 281 to Romney’s 257.
Intrade has Obama 259 to Romney 257
Several other very liberal media sites have Obama with larger leads, but then those sites, like CNN and PBS wouldn’t admit Romney had caught or gone ahead even if he had a 100 vote lead.
Real Clear Politics has Romney with 206 votes to Obama’s 201 with 131 toss-ups.
Freedom’s Lighthouse has Romney with 248 votes and Obama with 217 and 73 toss-ups.
The one thing I found when looking these up is that these projection maps are all over the place with Obama having a 60 vote lead to Romney having a 30 vote lead. But a couple months ago, I couldn’t find any projection maps that had Romney in the lead, not even among conservative media outlets. The swing of momentum is encouraging, but will it be enough?