Going into this year’s midterm elections, Republicans would have to win six seats from the Democrats in order to take control over the Senate. This is harder than you think since only about a third of the 100 senate seats are up for election.
With barely a month to go before Americans head to the polls, it appeared that Democrats had actually started to gain some ground in many of the polls. However this past week has seen a marked change in those polls that are now swinging to the Republican side. This is causing a growing number of political pundits to believe that the Republicans have a realistic chance of gaining the 6 seats they need.
One of the key races this year is in the heart of nation. The Selzer & Co. poll, sponsored by The Des Moines Register just revealed that Republican Joni Ernst has moved to a 6 point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley. Many see this as one of the most accurate polls in the nation and they also see the Iowa race as being one of the most critical pivoting points for senate control.
Over all, the Huffington Post’s model is showing that the Republicans have a 58% chance of gaining control of the senate. The Princeton Election Consortium, run by Professor Sam Wang has given the Republicans a 51% of winning senate control.
Greg Valliere, the chief political strategist at Potomac Research Group added:
“New polls this weekend were almost entirely bad for the Democrats, who are now in danger of losing six to eight of their Senate seats while picking up — at most — one GOP seat. The GOP needs a net gain of six seats to control the Senate, and that appears increasingly likely.”
Brett LoGiurato with Business Insider writes:
“The math does not look good for Democrats with 33 days until Election Day, as conditions look favorable for Republicans in eight seats currently held by Democrats — West Virginia (19-point average lead in polls), South Dakota (13.3), Montana (19), Louisiana (5), Iowa (2.2), Colorado (0.8), Arkansas (3.6), and Alaska (4.7).”
“Democrats need to prevent Republicans from winning six of these seats — or hope the independent candidate Greg Orman beats out the GOP incumbent Pat Roberts in Kansas and decides to caucus with Democrats. Unexpectedly, in fact, Democrats are also leading polls in North Carolina.”
“It’s these two states — North Carolina and Kansas — that serve as the reason Nate Silver says Democrats shouldn’t begin to outright panic. But if they begin to turn — as the Kansas race continues to develop and North Carolina, which features vulnerable Democratic incumbent, shifts more toward the national mood — it could mean Democrats will be in for a long Election Day.”
I’m sure the polls will continue to swing in favor of Republicans as more Americans start to receive cancellation notices for their new Obamacare policies and others receive hefty premium increases. The reason for cancellations is that many insurance companies have dropped a number of policies that were available last year and other companies have pulled out of the exchanges altogether. Additionally, employers are looking at the enforcement of the employer mandate in January and as many as 20% of manufacturers and service companies are shifting most of their employees from full time to part time. Imagine losing 25% of your pay along with your employer provided healthcare coverage. That will leave a bitter taste in the mouths of many Americans as they head to the polls 35 days from today.
The immigration and amnesty issue is also heavily on the minds of many Americans who polls indicate are overwhelming against giving amnesty to the millions of illegals. The Benghazi and Fast and Furious scandals are heating up again and neither bode well for Obama or Democrats.
Let’s hope and pray that the swing in the polls continue and that when all is cast and counted on November 7, Republicans will have seized control of the Senate while keeping control of the House and will be able to place political shackles on Obama’s legs and wrists.