What will the October surprise be?
“It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere.” – Voltaire
The ability to recognize patterns saves us from making the same mistakes over, and over again. When someone lies to you on multiple occasions, you eventually learn not to trust them. That is the recognition of a pattern. You observe a string of events, each of which result in similar negative outcomes, and through that recognition, you learn to avoid those events, or those responsible for those events. Yet many Americans don’t seem to be able to identify negative patterns, and thus avoid falling into the same traps into which they have previously fallen.
I’m not saying I’m perfect, and thus invulnerable to folly, I’m saying that I’m not a moron, and that I can recognize when a politician is manipulating the public. On a recent episode of The Five, Bob Beckel claimed that Obama has an October surprise up his sleeve. According to Google, an October surprise is “any political event orchestrated (or apparently orchestrated) in the month before an election, in the hopes of affecting the outcome.” Beckel said that he believes the surprise will be related to foreign policy, but he demurred when asked to embellish.
Now, it’s not at all surprising that Obama may have an October surprise planned, because many flagging Democrats in close elections throughout the United States need something big, and flashy to beef up their poll numbers. This year is expected to be a Republican sweep, a year in which Republicans dominate the mid-term elections. This is due mostly to Republicans campaigning endlessly on Obama’s planned executive action, as well as a slew of other Obama negatives. Democrats across the country are lagging behind Republicans, or tied in states which should be easy Democrat strongholds. I have two questions:
- What is the October surprise?
- Will Americans buy it?
Obviously, there will be miniature surprises, such as lowering unemployment rates. It happened just prior to the 2012 general election, and it’s already happening now. The new jobs numbers indicate a lower percentage of unemployment. Standing at 5.9%, the lowest since before Obama took office, these new jobs numbers look incredible, however, one look at another set of numbers, and one can see just why the unemployment rate has dropped. According to ZeroHedge.com:
“…the collapse in the labor force participation rate, which in September slid from an already three decade low 62.8% to 62.7% – the lowest in over 36 years, matching the February 1978 lows. And while according to the Household Survey, 232,000 people found jobs, what is more disturbing is that the people not in the labor force, rose to a new record high, increasing by 315,000 to 92.6 million…”
So while over 200,000 people gained employment, over 300,000 gave up altogether. This effectively dropped the jobless rate to 5.9%–but it’s not a number worth celebrating. The Obama administration, aided by the liberal press, will trot out this number as an Obama achievement. And you can bet your family jewels that come early November, just days before the mid-term elections, the new job numbers will be even better! I would guess a stable 5.9%, or more likely a slight—BUT BELIEVABLE—drop to 5.7% or so.
This is a small surprise, but an effective one. But what about the big one predicted by Beckel? This is merely a prediction of my own, but I’m going to throw it out there. With the recent and very public news that the FBI has allegedly identified “Jihadi John,” the man responsible for all the recent videotaped beheadings of several Americans, Brits, and a French tourist, soon before the election, it will be announced that under the direct leadership of Obama, the United States has captured Jihadi John.
This news will obliterate any anger over the recent revelation that Obama has attended just 42% of his daily intelligence briefings, that he plans to personally grant amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants in December, and any ager regarding the numerous other scandals plaguing his administration. This brief, but perfectly timed ebullience will translate into American voters across the country pulling the levers for Democratic candidates. Stupid Americans will view the perfectly timed jobs report, and Obama’s Jihadi John “accomplishment” as a reflection of liberals overall, and they will be lulled into a false sense of safety, believing Democrats to be strong, and effective leaders. Republicans will not take the Senate, and we will continue to burn as Rome did.